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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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thesis poses many technical problems (e.g., it presumes data from both communities of origin and destination), but the proposition can be advanced: Migration to large cities of developing countries increases, on the average, both the occupational mobility of the in-migrants and that of the natives.
The impact of arrival to the large city upon a man's work status is difficult to determine because information is not often collected for many points in the occupational history. The Monterrey life-history record enables us to make some comparisons. For three age-at-first-arrival-to-Monterrey groups, the percent who were in unskilled employment for three time intervals follows:
15-19                  20-29             30-39 3 years before
arrival in Monterrey                    93                       80                   70
First year in Monterrey                    83                       75                   56
Fifth year in Monterrey                   68                       59                   53
Part of the movement out of unskilled employment is a consequence of aging, but, even taking this into account, migrants to Monterrey are not all trapped in unskilled jobs. For Bombay, Zachariah (35, p. 388) states, "Between duration of residence of less than one year, and 15 years or over, the percentages employed in unskilled occupations and in service were nearly halved, while the percentages of craftsmen and those in clerical occupations were nearly doubled."
Social mobility has dimensions not captured in occupational mobility rates. A man's self-perception of how well he is doing is also important. In Monterrey, 92 percent of the migrants reported themselves satisfied with their decision to move to that city. This figure can be discounted; many of the less satisfied left, and some people will report themselves satisfied whatever their current situation. Nevertheless, there can be little doubt that a substantial majority see their migration to Monterrey in favorable terms. A somewhat similar response was obtained in a study of two squatter settlements in Bogota reported by Cardona Gutierrez (46, p. 63). In response to the question, "Do you consider that you're the same, better, or worse than before migrating?" 87 percent said they were better off and only 3 percent said they were worse off. Caldwell (12, p. 180) found for the urban population in his survey that in response to the question, "Has life in Accra (or Kumasi or Sekondi-Takoradi or Cape Coast) been as good as you thought it
fostered upward occupational mobility for the natives. But for nearly all developing countries the reverse holds. Immigrants originating in Europe have done substantially better than the indigenous population (45), and many of them settled in the large cities. One of the deficiencies of this paper is that it does not take the foreign-born explicitly into account. For a number of large cities their presence has had a considerable impact upon the opportunity structure of both natives and internal are those from farm backgrounds. They are the group who must make the (rreatest adjustment in stvlp. of livino nnH tVip.rpfnrp nrp nrp«nmali1\/ m^et inhe predominantly male rural-urban migration, in the multilingual character of the society, in the existence of polygamy, and